Implementing an Absolute Risk Model for Menopause Prediction

---

Early menopause, defined as the onset of menopause before the age of 45, affects approximately 10% of women worldwide. This condition presents significant challenges to reproductive health and family planning. Causes include environmental and genetic factors, autoimmune disorders, and conditions like Premature Ovarian Insufficiency (POI). The reduced fertility window increases the pressure to make timely reproductive decisions. Knowing the individual risk and the expected timing of menopause can help women plan proactively and make informed choices about their reproductive futures.

Currently, there is a lack of reliable methods for predicting an individual's age of menopause, leaving many women unprepared for early fertility decline. For IVF and fertility clinics, as well as gynecologists, this gap represents an unmet need in reproductive healthcare. Understanding a woman’s risk and expected timing of menopause is vital for empowering patients to make proactive and informed choices about their reproductive futures.

In response to this need, Allelica, Inc. and DNAPLUS Medic have developed an innovative risk assessment model, the first of its kind, that utilizes both genetic and environmental factors to predict an individual's age of menopause. This test employs an advanced polygenic risk score combined with key environmental variables to provide a personalized prediction of menopause onset.

The model analyzes over 500,000 genetic variants known to influence menopause timing to calculate a polygenic risk score. In addition to genetic factors, the model can incorporate critical environmental factors that affect menopause timing, including:

•          Age

•          Smoking status

•          Age at birth of first child (if applicable)

•          Body Mass Index (BMI)

•          Use of contraceptives

By integrating both genetic and environmental factors, the test provides a comprehensive and individualized estimate of when menopause may occur. 

The final individual results report (draft attached) of the test provides three ancestry-adjusted values:

•          Relative Risk of Early Menopause Compared to the Average Population

•          Absolute Risk of Early Menopause in Percent

•          Predicted Age of Menopause 

These results offer a comprehensive understanding of a woman's reproductive timeline, enabling more personalized and informed decision-making.

For the first time, women can make informed reproductive decisions based on their unique risk profiles, empowering them to take control of their fertility. This advancement allows them to make informed choices, giving them greater confidence in decisions regarding fertility preservation, egg freezing, or IVF treatments. It enables them to plan proactively, manage their reproductive timelines more effectively, and align them with personal and professional goals.

This innovative risk assessment model is particularly relevant for IVF and fertility clinics as well as gynecologists. By incorporating this tool into their clinical offerings, IVF and fertility clinics can enhance their reproductive counseling services, providing patients with valuable insights into their fertility timelines. Gynecologists, as primary points of contact for women's reproductive health, can leverage the test to identify patients at risk of early menopause, facilitating proactive discussions about fertility preservation and family planning. These professionals can use the model to deliver a more personalized approach to reproductive healthcare, improving patient outcomes and satisfaction.